Rise is terrorism in 2024 pushes Pakistan towards pre-APS era

Banned BLA emerged as a key factor of terrorist violence in 2024

Over 95 percent of terrorist attacks concentrated in KP and Balochistan

Islamabad – The year 2024 recorded a perturbing rise in both frequency and intensity of terrorist attacks in Pakistan and its security landscape could regress to the pre-APS era if this trajectory persists.

By 2024, the number of attacks has reached levels comparable to the security situation in 2015 or before. The present trends of sharp rise in terrorism predict that the country is fast moving towards the precarious security situation that persisted before the deadliest terrorist attack on the Army Public School (APS) in Peshawar in December 2014.

After a gradual decline in terrorist violence since 2014-15, the trend began reversing following the Taliban’s 2021 capture of Kabul.

These are some of the findings of the “Pakistan Security Report 2024” released by Islamabad-based think tank Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) here on Wednesday. The report gives an overview of the country’s security for the year 2024, presenting critical challenges and recommendations to improve the volatile situation.

A significant difference remains that unlike the period before 2014, terrorists no longer control specific territories inside Pakistan. Yet, the prevailing insecurity in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan is alarming, reads the report.

In 2024, the banned Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) emerged as a key actor of terrorist violence in Pakistan.

While the attacks by the proscribed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) killed about 300 people during the year, the BLA-orchestrated attacks caused 225 fatalities, a figure comparable to TTP-led terrorism.

Over 95 percent of terrorist attacks recorded in 2024 were concentrated in the provinces of KP and Balochistan. The data highlights a troubling expansion of militant influence in these regions, which have become pivotal to their operations.

Data on terrorist attacks

Marking a 70 percent increase from the previous year, Pakistan experienced a total of 521 terrorist attacks in 2024. This intensified wave of terrorism claimed 852 lives, reflecting a 23 percent rise compared to the terrorism-related fatalities recorded the year before. Another 1,092 people were injured in these attacks recorded during the year.

In 2024, as many as 358 personnel from security and law enforcement agencies were martyred in terrorist attacks – 78 FC (both Frontier Constabulary and Frontier Corps) men, 140 policemen, 124 army officials, 13 Levies members and three unspecified paramilitary soldiers. Similarly, 355 civilians lost their lives and another 621 were wounded in these attacks. Meanwhile, 139 militants were killed and another 10 were wounded – either during the suicide blasts they perpetrated or in retaliatory fire by security forces following certain attacks.

Although terrorist attacks were recorded in all four provinces and the federal capital in 2024, over 95 percent of them were concentrated in KP and Balochistan.

KP recorded the highest number of terrorist incidents in the country during the outgoing year, with 295 attacks that also included five sectarian-related attacks. These attacks claimed 509 lives and left 517 others injured. Compared to the previous year, the number of terrorist incidents in the province increased by 69 percent, while fatalities rose by 21 percent.

Attacks by various outlawed Baloch insurgent groups, primarily the BLA and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), saw a staggering 119 percent increase, accounting for 171 incidents in the Balochistan province. Overall, Balochistan experienced an 84 percent rise in attacks in 2024 compared to the previous year, with 202 terrorist incidents that claimed 322 lives and injured 534 others.

Compared to 15 in the previous year, 12 terrorist attacks occurred in Sindh province, including 10 in Karachi and one each in Dadu and Larkana districts. These attacks killed a total of 14 people and injured 28 others.

In 2024, Punjab experienced 11 terrorist attacks, a significant increase from six in the previous year. These attacks claimed six lives and injured 12 individuals. One sectarian-related terrorist attack was recorded in Islamabad.

Sectarian violence

 Sectarian violence surged in Pakistan in 2024, with a significant occurrence in the Kurram tribal district of KP. A total of 234 people lost their lives, a sharp increase from 43 fatalities in 2023, and 441 others were injured in a combined total of 24 incidents of sectarian violence, which included 11 sectarian-related attacks and 13 violent sectarian clashes.

Anti-militant operations

In 2024, a significant increase in militant fatalities was observed during operational strikes conducted by Pakistani security forces. Compared to 373 militants killed in such operations in 2023, the number rose to 621 in 2024, marking a rise of over 66 percent. Overall, security forces and law enforcement agencies carried out 158 anti-militant operations in 2024, which was a 22 percent increase from the previous year.

Security forces killed 139 militants in retaliatory fire following certain terrorist attacks and 136 others attempting to infiltrate Pakistan from Afghanistan.

Overall, 932 militants were killed in 2024 mainly in incidents mentioned above.

Border incidents

A total of 28 violent incidents – including attacks and clashes – were reported along Pakistan’s borders, with Afghanistan 25 incidents, India one and Iran two, marking an increase from 12 such incidents in the previous year.

These events resulted in 150 fatalities (136 militants, seven security personnel and seven civilians) and 46 injuries.

Recommendations

Although kinetic actions and enhanced surveillance by security forces may reduce or prevent some attacks of the TTP, the root cause – shelter and support available to the proscribed group within Afghanistan – must be addressed to achieve long-term security, recommends the report.

It adds that there is a need to increase the capacity and role of civilian law enforcement agencies, especially the police’s counter-terrorism departments (CTDs) in KP and Balochistan, to better address terrorist threats through community-rooted structures.

It says that comprehensive dialogue with local communities and representatives of political and social groups, particularly in Balochistan and KP, should be initiated to isolate militants and gain community trust and support for counterterrorism efforts.

The issue of enforced disappearances in Balochistan, often exploited by insurgents to gain support and recruits, must be addressed through a lawful and amicable policy to counter militant narratives effectively.

There is a critical need to isolate the BLA from the broader Baloch population. This can be achieved through a comprehensive political and socioeconomic programme aimed at winning hearts and minds of the Baloch people.

The KP provincial government and the federal government must strengthen cooperation and dialogue to effectively counter terrorism and enhance security in the province.