The resurgence of banned terrorist and insurgent groups, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), in western and southern Pakistan is alarming and poses a significant threat to the country’s strategic assets, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). To comprehensively assess this threat, Pak Institute for Peace Studies organized a Focus Group Discussion at its premises in Islamabad on December 13, 2024. Held as part of a study titled “Pakistan’s Emerging Security Dynamics and Their Impact on CPEC, the event brought together experts, law enforcement practitioners, media professionals, and academics.
Participants delved into diverse patterns in relation to resurfacing of terrorism in the country and its possible impacts on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). They noted that there exists a well-structured cooperation between terrorist and insurgent groups, which needs to be dealt with a different approach other than usual methods of tackling terrorism.
National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA)’s former national coordinator Ihsan Ghani said there was very weak coordination between the central and provincial governments regarding information sharing and responsibilities for countering security threats, more specifically in the case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). “Secondly, there is a lack of strong political narrative against terrorism on the state level, which made terrorism able to resurface after being crushed during Operation Zarb-e-Azb,” he said.
Ghani, also a former police officer, went on to say that the state is not putting the required efforts to counter the threats posed by terrorism. “The problem in Pakistan is not its policies, but these remain unimplemented,” he said. He concluded that people of Balochistan were facing the problem of perceived identity threat, and the approach needed to end terrorism could not be applied in the case of insurgent groups like BLA. “Dealing with the insurgent groups needs a different set of tools which should be deployed separately,” he added.
Xu Hangtian, the Minister-Counsellor at the Chinese Embassy in Pakistan, reiterated the support for Pakistan’s national security and determination for completion of CPEC despite the changing geopolitical scenarios. He also emphasized public diplomacy and bilateral and regional cooperation to bring peace to the region, consequently securing completion of the corridor project.
Journalist and author Zahid Hussain said there was a deep and decentralized support to the proscribed TTP by the Afghan Taliban, especially by the outlawed Haqqani Network. “There also exists a well-structured cooperation between terrorist and insurgent groups in the likes of TTP and BLA,” he said, noting it might be possible that Afghan Taliban are the facilitators of this cooperation. “Terrorism needs to be fought directly by the civilian apparatus, while it requires continuous engagement from the state to deal with insurgency,” he said.
Editor and analyst Haroon Rashid focused on unfolding violence in the Kurram tribal district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, claiming it is neither a land dispute nor a religious one, but a geographical issue as the area is a crossing point of all militant groups. He pointed out the provincial government’s inability to curb recent incidents of violence and terrorism in the region.
Hassan Khan, an expert on Afghan affairs, viewed that the Haqqani Network had some personal grudges against the state of Pakistan and the proscribed group was now taking revenge from the latter by supporting the TTP. On the deteriorating security situation in KP, he extended that the province has become a ping pong ball between the central and provincial governments. “People of the province are frustrated over the state for its failure to bring an end to the terrorism,” he added.
Zeeshan Salahudin of Tabadlab, an Islamabad-based think tank providing advisory services, underlined that the evolving geopolitical realities, the victory of President-elect Donald Trump, and deteriorating economic and security situation might bring hard times for Pakistan and the CPEC, with India being dubbed as a ‘watchman’ of US interests in the region.
Other Key Findings
- The Afghan Taliban provides decentralized but substantial support to the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) via networks such as the Haqqani Network and figures like Mullah Zakir. Following Operation Zarb-e-Azb, which crippled both TTP and IS-K, the TTP has resurged due to the Afghan Taliban’s backing. Its leadership resides in Afghanistan, and its previously dormant foot soldiers were reactivated after 2017.
- Pakistan’s counter-terrorism response is insufficient given the escalating threat. Gaps between policy formulation and execution, exemplified by the incomplete implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) since its inception in 2014, have allowed terrorist groups to regain strength, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The rising incidents of terrorism risk reverting the country to the pre-2014 security situation.
- Violence in Kurram district is driven by a combination of domestic sectarian and land disputes, compounded by its strategic location as a crossing point for militant groups. Its proximity to Taliban-controlled Kabul, just 60 kilometers away, further exacerbates its security challenges. Additionally, regional players like Iran and Afghanistan have vested interests in the area, contributing to local unrest.
- Shifts in great power politics, particularly the U.S.’s external balancing strategy under Donald Trump, have the potential to destabilize the region. Closer U.S.-India ties and support for India as a regional “watchman” heighten instability, especially concerning the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Allegations of Indian support for insurgent groups in Balochistan, including the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), underscore this risk. The U.S.’s preferential treatment of India, as seen during the Russia-Ukraine war, strengthens India’s strategic influence in the region.
Recommendations
Following a rigorous debate on this critical issue, accompanied by cross-questioning, experts proposed several recommendations to address the escalating security threats in Pakistan’s Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces:
- Counter-terrorism efforts should be directed primarily by civilian state apparatus, while addressing insurgency requires sustained engagement from the state to achieve long-term resolution.
- Pakistan’s approach to regional affairs, particularly its relationship with Afghanistan, needs reassessment. Despite immense potential for bilateral trade and leveraging each other’s routes to Central and South Asia, current policies have antagonized relations with Afghanistan.
- Strategies designed for combating terrorism cannot simply be applied to ongoing insurgency in Balochistan. Addressing insurgency requires a distinct set of tools and approaches, tailored specifically to their unique dynamics.
- Establishing a unified authority dedicated to the strategic security of the CPEC was proposed. This measure is essential to safeguard and ensure the successful completion of this vital project, which is of critical importance to both China and Pakistan.
